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Where is Paige Bueckers in player of the year race? Midseason award predictions for UConn women’s basketball

Notre Dame's Hannah Hidalgo, left, tries to steal the ball from UConn's Paige Bueckers during the second half of the Huskies loss to the Irish in Purcell Pavilion on Thursday in South Bend, Indiana. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo, left, tries to steal the ball from UConn’s Paige Bueckers during the second half of the Huskies loss to the Irish in Purcell Pavilion on Thursday in South Bend, Indiana. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
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The national player of the year in women’s basketball has been unanimous across the major awards (Naismith, Associated Press, Wooden) for the last three seasons, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see that trend end in 2024-25 without an obvious frontrunner at the midseason mark.

UConn women’s basketball star Paige Bueckers is one of three superstar contenders headlining the race, alongside Hannah Hidalgo at No. 3 Notre Dame and JuJu Watkins at No. 4 USC. Bueckers is one of the most efficient guards in the country, averaging 19.9 points on career-high 55.9% shooting from the field, also hitting above 40% from 3-point range. The redshirt senior also averages 4.3 rebounds, four assists and 2.1 steals per game, and she ranks top-10 in the country in assist-to-turnover ratio.

Hidalgo has the best numbers among the trio, averaging 25.7 points, six rebounds and 3.7 assists per game, and she is shooting 50.4% from the field and nearly 46% beyond the arc. The sophomore point guard is also one of two players in the country averaging more than four steals per game. Watkins is just as productive logging 25.5 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.9 assists, though she is not nearly as efficient as Hidalgo or Bueckers shooting 46.5% from the field and 35.3% from three.

Bueckers was an almost-unanimous player of the year in 2020-21, becoming the first freshman to win the Naismith Trophy, Wooden Award and Associated Press honor. The only award missing from her collection was the Wade Trophy, which freshmen were not eligible for until the 2021-22 season. Hidalgo and Watkins were both first-team All Americans and Naismith Trophy finalists as freshmen in 2023-24, and Watkins was the first freshman finalist for the Wade Trophy since the change in eligibility requirements.

Southern California guard JuJu Watkins (12) is guarded by UConn guard Paige Bueckers (5) in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game, Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, in Hartford, Conn. (AP Photo/Jessica Hill)
Southern California guard JuJu Watkins (12) is guarded by UConn guard Paige Bueckers (5) in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game, Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, in Hartford, Conn. (AP Photo/Jessica Hill)

The biggest obstacle to Bueckers’ case in 2024-25 may be UConn’s head-to-head losses against the other two candidates. Hidalgo, the betting favorite for the Wooden Award, had a career performance in Notre Dame’s 79-68 victory against UConn in December with 29 points on six 3-pointers plus 10 rebounds, eight assists and three steals. She also powered the Irish with 24 points, six rebounds, eight assists and five steals in their November win over Watkins’ Trojans in Los Angeles. Watkins also had one of her best 3-point performances of the season going 3-for-4 in USC’s 72-70 win in Hartford, leading the Trojans with 25 points, six rebounds, five assists and three blocks.

Bueckers could use a statement performance in at least one of the two blockbuster games left on UConn’s schedule to solidify herself in the national consciousness, especially after missing two games in January with a left knee sprain. The Huskies continue their historic rivalry series with No. 15 Tennessee in Knoxville on Feb. 6, then look for their first win against No. 2 South Carolina since 2021 in Columbia on Feb. 16.

Is Sarah Strong a lock for Freshman of the Year?

Sarah Strong arrived in Storrs with high expectations as the No. 1 recruit in the Class of 2024, and the freshman has already lived up to everything that her pedigree promised. Strong is averaging 17.2 points, a team-high 7.9 rebounds and 3.6 assists, also leading the Huskies with 2.4 steals and 1.1 blocks, and she has put up three double-doubles with two coming in ranked matchups against No. 14 North Carolina and USC. She is all but guaranteed Big East Freshman of the Year with six Freshman of the Week recognitions from the conference — the same number 2024 winner Ashlynn Shade earned across the entire season.

Strong’s top challenger in the national race is Syla Swords, who was No. 4 in the 2024 class and is now averaging 15.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists at Michigan. Swords has shined in the biggest moments with 27 points against South Carolina and 30 at No. 1 UCLA, but the Wolverines star hasn’t played with Strong’s level of consistency. The UConn rookie has scored at least 10 points in every game of her college career so far, and she is the only freshman that ranks inside the top 30 nationally in both assist-to-turnover ratio and field goal percentage.

UConn forward Sarah Strong (21) had another big night for UConn women, and she made it look easy. Conn. (AP Photo/Jessica Hill)
UConn forward Sarah Strong (21) had another big night for UConn women, and she made it look easy. Conn. (AP Photo/Jessica Hill)

Who’s in the mix for Big East awards?

On top of Freshman of the Year, Strong could easily make a case for Big East Defensive Player of the Year as the only player in the conference averaging at least two steals and one block per game. She also leads the league in defensive rebounding, anchoring a UConn defense that ranks first in the Big East in both points allowed and turnovers forced. The Huskies also hold opponents to a conference-low 35.6% shooting from the field.

Sophomore KK Arnold has spent the start of conference play establishing herself as a contender for Sixth Player of the Year after earning All-Big East honors as a freshman last season. Arnold had a slow start in 2024-25 but is averaging eight points, 3.5 assists and two steals against Big East opponents in just 23 minutes off the bench for the Huskies. Shade has started 12 games but could also have a case for Sixth Player by the end of the season once Bueckers rejoins the lineup and moves her back to the bench. She is averaging 8.4 points per game while shooting a team-best 41.5% from 3-point range, and she has also been one of the team’s strongest perimeter defenders.

Star guard Azzi Fudd was a preseason All-Big East selection, and she is on track to secure her first conference honor since her 2021-22 despite appearing in just 11 games so far. Fudd was limited to start 2024-25 recovering from ACL and medial meniscus tear suffered last season, and she missed another three games in December after spraining her right knee, but she has hit her stride in recent Big East matchups with back-to-back 20-point performances. Fudd is averaging 13.6 points shooting 46.4% from the field in conference play, and she also ranks third in 3-point percentage hitting 43.8%.