The tumultuous events sweeping Syria are destined to have a profound impact on the country and Middle East as a region. To the relief of most Syrians, the al-Assad family dynasty has finally ended after 54 years of brutal dictatorship. The lightning speed in which these events took place is astonishing. The regime’s two most important state backers, Russia and Iran, have abandoned it. Putin is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine. Additionally, Iran and its proxies have been severely weakened by the war with Israel that has lasted more than a year. The next few weeks are going to be crucial in determining Syria’s destiny.
The rebel groups are made up of a bewildering array of militias including the Syrian Free Army, Islamic State, Guardians of Islam, al-Qaeda, Druze militias, Kurdish militias, Mujahedin Khalq, and others. They are dominated by Hay’at Tahreer al-Sham or HTS (English translation – Syrian Liberation Front) which is led by Abou Mohammad al-Golani, the leader of Al-Nusra front and a former member of al-Qaeda in Iraq. He is the putative leader of the rebel forces. al-Golani has been saying the right things in recent days. The question is: will he deliver on his promises of inclusion, respect of human rights, support of state’s political institutions, and protection of minority rights? He oversaw the formation of Islamist-dominated transitional government headed by Mohammad al-Bashir.
Among the groups in Syria, the U.S. considers al-Qaeda, Islamic State (formerly ISIS), Hezbollah, Al-Nusra front, Islamic Jihad, PKK as terrorist organizations.
US strikes ISIS targets in Syria in show of force as Assad exits
On Friday, December 13, Syrians celebrated “Victory Day” to express their joy and relief that Assad is gone and to hope for a better future. It is obvious that their country is at a crossroads. Regime changes in Iraq (2003) and Libya (2011) led to violence, chaos, and upheavals. The likely scenario for Syria will be a period of turbulence and uncertainty in which the various opposition groups will be jockeying for power.
Assad and his family have fled the country and are now guests of Vladimir Putin in Russia. How will the United States deal with the current situation given the fact that it maintains military presence in Eastern Syria? What will be the fate of Syrian refugees in neighboring countries? How will Israel react to the seismic events in its northern neighbor? How will Russia and Iran respond to the loss of a major ally in the Middle East? Will the oil-rich Arab states help rebuild the Syrian economy, which has been devastated by war? These are critical questions.
In the end, Syria’s future hinges not only on the choices of its own people and its government’s policies, but also on the dynamics of regional and global powers, making this a moment where the world must urgently consider how to shape the next chapter of a country that has known nothing but destruction and war for far too long.
Ghassan E. El-Eid, is an associate professor of political science at Central Connecticut State University.
